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2023 Super Bowl guide: Chiefs-Eagles picks, stats, predictions

Super Bowl LVII kicks off on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Philadelphia Eagles. These franchises are used to the big stage, as the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV after the 2019 season and are making their third appearance in the big game in four years. The Eagles are also recent champions, winning Super Bowl LII following the 2017 season. These two teams have been atop the heap all year, as they were the top seeds in their respective conferences. Super Bowl LVII represents the first meeting of top seeds in the Super Bowl since the Eagles’ aforementioned Super Bowl LII win over the New England Patriots.

Our NFL team has you covered with everything you’d ever want to know for Chiefs-Eagles, including team previews, bold predictions and game picks. We also provide betting advice from our sports betting experts, game plan breakdowns from our analysts, and in-depth statistics from the ESPN Stats & Information team. We look at the two quarterbacks, the head coaches, key rookies and some X factors as well. We even preview the officiating, halftime show, injury report and top Super Bowl MVP candidates.

It’s all here in a handy one-stop cheat sheet. Let’s dive in, starting with an overview of the exciting matchup.

Previewing Chiefs vs. Eagles

When: Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Television: Fox
Depth charts: Chiefs | Eagles

The Eagles were in shambles a little over two years ago. At 4-11-1, they were being excoriated for playing third-string quarterback Nate Sudfeld in a game with playoff implications. Coach Doug Pederson, three years removed from a Super Bowl title, was about to be fired. Franchise quarterback Carson Wentz had been unsettled by the decision to draft Jalen Hurts and melted down behind a battered offensive line. Wentz, too, would be gone within months.

Now, the Eagles are back. Howie Roseman, the general manager many fans wanted out the door alongside Pederson and Wentz, rebuilt the roster in record time. Team owner Jeffrey Lurie nailed the head-coach hiring of Nick Sirianni. Hurts, who was in the middle of a 7-for-20 day before being benched for Sudfeld in that Week 18 game, has grown into a superstar.

Of course, there’s life after getting fired by the Eagles. After the 2012 season, Andy Reid was run out of town by Philadelphia fan base. Reid immediately went to Kansas City and revitalized the Chiefs. Plus, when he linked up with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he suddenly figured out how to win in the playoffs! Reid’s Chiefs have won one Super Bowl and are back in their third title game in four years.

When Reid joined the Chiefs, many coaches on the previous staff were let go. One of them was Sirianni, a 31-year-old wide receivers coach who had joined the staff under Todd Haley and stuck around for the brief tenure of Romeo Crennel. It has been too long for this to be a revenge game for either coach, but let’s not pretend that what happened in the past doesn’t add at least a little bit of fuel to the fire. — Bill Barnwell, senior NFL writer

Story and Cover image via ESPN

Biggest questions

Can the Chiefs protect Patrick Mahomes and his injured ankle? The Eagles led the league in sacks by a wide margin and usually don’t have to blitz to get to the opposing quarterback. They rank first in both pass rush win rate (52%) and sack rate (11%), along with fifth in pressure percentage (33%). And Mahomes doesn’t figure to be as mobile as he was during the regular season given his recent high ankle sprain. Consistent pressure on Mahomes ruined the Chiefs’ chances of winning Super Bowl LV against the Buccaneers two years ago, but the Chiefs have upgraded their offensive line since then. They will need their linemen — who lead the league in pass block win rate this season (76%) — to play well if they’re going to give Mahomes a chance. — Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter

How important is the Eagles’ pass rush in this game? Philadelphia racked up 70 sacks during the regular season — third most in NFL history — while becoming the only team to have four players reach 10-plus sacks in a season since sacks became an official stat in 1982. Edge rusher Haason Reddick has led the way with 19.5 takedowns, including the playoffs. He took over the NFC Championship Game with two sacks, three pressures, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in the first half alone and knocked 49ers QB Brock Purdy out of the game on a strip sack. The Eagles boast the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL thanks in large part to the work up front, but Mahomes is the best quarterback they’ve faced in the postseason by a wide margin. If they can win the matchup up front and get after a hobbled Mahomes, the Eagles have a very good chance of leaving Arizona as champions. — Tim McManus, Eagles reporter

Key stats to know
Team stats: Chiefs | Eagles

The Chiefs averaged the most passing yards per game during the regular season (298), while the Eagles allowed the fewest passing yards per game on defense (180). According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it’s just the third Super Bowl matchup to feature the No. 1 passing offense against the No. 1 passing defense. In the first two instances, the defensive team won convincingly, with the Seahawks beating the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII and the Buccaneers topping the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.

Wondering how even this game is? The Chiefs and Eagles have the same record (16-3). They’ve scored the same number of points (546). And they have the same number of All-Pros (six). Both the Chiefs and Eagles didn’t trail in a game this postseason. According to Elias, this will be the first Super Bowl where both teams entered without trailing at any point during their postseason run since Super Bowl XXXIX in the 2004 season between the Eagles and the Patriots.

Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have been the two best quarterbacks passing from the pocket this season in a variety of categories. Including the playoffs, Mahomes is first in Total QBR (72.7) and second in TD-INT ratio (37-8). Hurts is second in Total QBR (69.5) and first in TD-INT ratio (21-4). Additionally, Mahomes has the most touchdown passes from inside the pocket, while Hurts has the highest completion percentage (66.5%). Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards during the regular season. No player has ever led the league in passing yards and won the Super Bowl in that same season.

This will be the first Super Bowl matchup between Black starting quarterbacks. Mahomes will start his third Super Bowl, and Hurts will be the eighth different Black quarterback to start a Super Bowl. And at a combined 51 years, 337 days of age on Super Bowl Sunday, they will surpass Joe Montana and Dan Marino (Super Bowl XIX) as the youngest Super Bowl quarterback matchup of all time.

Wide receiver A.J. Brown had an Eagles single-season record 1,496 receiving yards this season, the sixth most by a player to reach the Super Bowl in history. This season, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce led all tight ends in receptions per game, receiving yards per game and yards after the catch per game, including the playoffs. (Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert ranked top five in all of those areas as well, including second in yards after the catch per game.)

Including playoffs, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones has 17.5 sacks this season, which is the third most by a primary defensive tackle in a season since the stat became official in 1982. He has already recorded eight pressures as an interior defensive lineman this postseason.

Travis Kelce and Eagles center Jason Kelce both reaching the Super Bowl marks the first time that brothers have opposed each other. In Super Bowl XLVII, John and Jim Harbaugh became the first brothers to coach against each other.

Who will win Super Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Miles Sanders. The Eagles’ offense is predicated on its dominant run game, and their starting running back can cap his breakout season with a late-game score. Sanders has had multiple touchdowns in four games this season.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Mahomes. I know the regular-season MVP hasn’t won the Super Bowl since Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXIV, but Mahomes has defied everything this season. From retooling the offense post-Tyreek Hill without missing a beat to winning two playoff games on a bad ankle, Mahomes always finds a way.

Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Mahomes. Simply put, Mahomes is the league’s best player. He’s a generational talent at the game’s most important position, and he’s second to none as a leader. Any questions?

Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: Haason Reddick. The best way to stop the Chiefs’ offense is to pressure Mahomes without blitzing, and the Eagles’ dominant edge rusher will expose a Kansas City offense line that is good but not great.

Of the 71 experts who weighed in, 33 (46.4%) picked Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP. See all of our experts’ picks